Preview: Due January 29 - U.S. December Advance Goods Trade Balance - Imports may rise ahead of tariffs
We expect an advance December trade deficit of $109.9bn, up from $103.5bn in November and marginally exceeding September’s $108.6bn to reach its highest level since March 2022.
Both exports and imports are likely to see strong gains, exports by 3.5% and imports by 4.5%, both similar to gains seen in November which rebounded from October data depressed by a strike at East Coast ports early in the month. Boeing exports picked up in December in a recovery from a strike that was settled in October, and firm December industrial production suggests a rise in exports. However, imports may be even stronger in an attempt to beat threatened upcoming tariffs.
The data could lead to some fine tuning of Q4 GDP forecasts with the GDP release due on January 30. However, strength in imports may be offset by strength in inventories, with advance wholesale and retail inventory data for December also due with the advance trade report.
