Preview: Due December 19 - U.S. November Housing Starts & Permits - Trend to start losing momentum
We expect November housing starts to fall by 3.1% to 1330k while permits fall by 2.5% to 1460k, more than fully reversing respective gains of 1.9% and 1.8% in October. While monthly data are volatile, we expect the data be illustrative of a trend that is about to move lower.
Housing demand has been slipping in response to higher mortgage rates, though new home sales have been more resilient as has residential construction. However momentum appears to be slowing with October's 0.6% rise in single permits (with July) the slowest of nine straight gains and we expect a 0.9% decline in November. We expect single starts to fall by a similar 1.0% after a marginal 0.2% increase in October, as a recent uptrend peaks.
In the more volatile multiple sector we expect starts to fall by 8.0% and permits to fall by 5.5%, both more than fully reversing increases of 6.3% and 4.1% respectively seen in October.
