Preview: Due January 30 - Canada November GDP - Partial reversal of October's dip
We expect November Canadian GDP to increase by 0.1% in line with a preliminary estimate made with October’s report, when a 0.3% decline was reported. We expect the preliminary estimate for December will also show a modest increase.
If November GDP rose by 0.1% and October is unrevised, a flat December would leave GDP down by around 0.5% annualized, correcting a 2.6% increase in Q3. If December manages a modest increase, Q4 may be close to unchanged.
The preliminary estimate for November saw weakness in manufacturing and mining but gains in construction, educational services and transport and warehousing. This suggests that goods will slip for a second straight month, even with a rise in construction, but services will recover from an October decline.
Given a dip in November 2024, yr/yr GDP would then pick up to 0.7% from 0.4% in October. October saw these lowest yr/yr gain since February 2021 ended a string of negatives seen because of the pandemic.