North American Summary and Highlights 25 April

North American session

In a subdued North American session USD/JPY advanced to 144 before correcting to near 143.50 while EUR/USD advanced to near 1.14 before stalling. This saw EUR/JPY rallying from 162.80 to 163.75 before settling still firmer near 163.40. Excluding USD/JPY, the USD was generally slightly softer. 

Canadian retail sales fell by 0.4% as expected but the preliminary indication for March was for a 0.7% gain. April’s final Michigan CSI was revised up to 52.2 from 50.8 but was still down from March’s 57.0. The revision came largely on current conditions and near-term inflation expectations. 6-month expectations on activity and the 5-10 year inflation view saw little change from the preliminary.  

European morning session 

The USD was mixed in a fairly quiet European morning session. EUR/USD and GBP/USD were both modestly firmer, but USD/JPY was little changed and the commodity currencies and scandis were weaker, with EUR/SEK showing the sharpest move, rising 8 figures to 11 without an obvious trigger. The CHF was slightly the best performer, with EUR/CF slipping a little lower, despite comments from SNB president Schlegel noting that the SNB could cut rates or use FX intervention to offset the impact of tariffs.   

Newswise, UK March retail sales early in the session came in stronger than expected, rising 0.4% m/m against a consensus of a 0.3% decline, although the February rise was revised down to 0.7% from 1.0%. There was no impact on GBP, in part because the strength was concentrated in clothing and footwear which was likely weather related, while the Q1 GDP data is already know to have been strong, and there is more concern about the latest weakness in survey data.