U.S. Initial Claims remain low but some labor market risks lie ahead
Initial claims at 225k fr9m 219k are at a 3-week high though this follows the lowest level since May 18 last week and the 4-week average of 224.25k remains the lowest since June 1. Hurricane Helene may be starting to have some impact and may give a more significant boost next week.
The survey week for September’s non-farm payroll came two weeks ago, so this data should not impact payroll expectations. Hurricane Helene should have no impact on September’s payroll and by the time October’s payroll is surveyed the impact should be modest. Strikes at East Coast ports and Boeing may however have a substantial negative impact on October’s payroll.
Continued claims fell by 1k to 1.826k with last week’s 6k decline seeing the level; revised down by 7k. The 4-week average is falling here too, and a 1.829m is the lowest since June 15.
