Preview: Due September 27 - Canada July GDP - A little stronger than the preliminary estimate
We expect Canadian GDP to increase by 0.1% in July, slightly above an unchanged estimate made with June data. A Bank of Canada forecast made in July of 2.8% annualized growth in Q3 will however still look difficult to achieve. Governor Macklem has acknowledged downside risk to the forecast.
While manufacturing is likely to rebound from a weak June, we expect a 0.2% decline in goods output with mining and construction seen weak, and utilities vulnerable to a correction from a strong June.
We expect a 0.2% increase in services output, with support coming from a correction higher in wholesale from a weak June, despite suggestions with June data that weakness would be extended. This is the main remains we expect July data to come in stronger than the preliminary estimate, though July retail sales also modestly exceeded an estimate made with June's data.
