Preview: Due April 25 - U.S. March Advance Goods Trade Balance - Exports, imports and deficit to increase
We expect March’s advance goods trade deficit to rise to $91.2bn from $90.3bn, reaching an 11-month high. We expect exports and imports to both increase by 1.0%, though imports would then see the larger increase in USD terms.
The data will be released alongside the Q1 GDP report and will contribute to that release, as will advance wholesale and retail inventory data due with the advance goods trade report.
Our forecasts assume a pick-up in both exports and imports in Q1 to date will be maintained, even if the monthly gains in both series fall short of those in February. The gains will come more from volumes than prices though both import and export prices saw modest gains in March. Rising exports and imports suggests healthy activity, but as imports exceed exports gains in both series at a similar pace this will act as a negative in the GDP arithmetic.
