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Published: 2024-01-16T11:15:42.000Z

Psychology for major markets 16 Jan

byAdrian Schmidt

Senior FX Strategist
-

USD strong as yields rise after the holiday

EUR/USD – EUR/USD breaking lower below 1.09 as US yields rise. Clearer divergence between ECB and Fed monetary policy expectations looks necessary to sustain USD gains.
USD/JPY – USD/JPY breaking to new highs for the year as the USD gains on rising yields, but spreads don’t look wide enough to support further gains. Sentiment nevertheless JPY negative due to continued easy BoJ policy and soft data.
EUR/GBP – EUR/GBP making modest gains above 0.86 as wage growth declines. Sentiment may be turning more bullish, but reluctantly so as UK PMIs have outperformed.
AUD/USD – Continuing to soften as US yields rise, with concerns about China’s weak growth and inflation undermining sentiment, as well as some background geopolitical concern.
USD/CHF – CHF looks toppish here as SNB turns more dovish and halts FX selling. 
Equities - CPI strong enough to ask some questions about the extent of Fed easing priced in, and may mark a near term top for equities.

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