Preview: Due December 18 - U.S. November Housing Starts and Permits - Modest gains after weather-related dips
We expect November housing starts to rise by 3.7% to 1.36m after a 3.1% October decline, while permits rise by 0.8% to 1.43m after a 0.4% October decline. Trend appears slightly positive and October data, particularly for starts, probably faced some restraint from hurricanes.
Most housing sector data recently has been positive but new home sales fell sharply in October, probably in part on weather, while November’s non-farm payroll showed slippage in construction aggregate hours worked.
We expect starts to show singles rising by 5.2% after a 6.9% October fall but multiples to fall by 0.3% after a 9.6% October increase. Multiples are not due for a sharp slide with October’s gain having followed two straight declines.
For permits in contrast we expect singles to fall by 1.1% after a 0.8% October increase while multiples rise by 4.9% after falling by 3.0% in October. Here multiples have scope for a significant bounce after two straight declines.
