Psychology for major markets Mar 5
Still mostly rangebound. Powell testimony, ECB and employmnt report may move markets this week
EUR/USD – EUR/USD still holding the 1.08 -1.09 range, having survived a test of the bottom end. Hard to see a near term break, but focus on Powell on Wednesday, the ECB on Thursday and the US employment report Friday, all of which could trigger a significant move.
USD/JPY – USD/JPY still holding above 150 despite yield spreads moving in the JPY’s favour. Low vol and resilient equities helping to support sentiment, but Powell testimony Wednesday has potential to trigger a move.
EUR/GBP- GBP still stuck close to 0.8550. Mild upside bias seen given greater risks of a downward repricing of UK rate outlook. UK Budget likely to be neutral for monetary policy.
AUD/USD – AUD hovering around 0.65 with sentiment still dependent on global equity sentiment, but 0.6450-0.6550 range likely to hold near term.
EUR/CHF – CHF continuing to weaken with EUR/CHF reaching its highest since early January. More upside still possible as SNB remain one of the more dovish central banks.
Equities – US markets remaining close to all time highs helped by strong corporate earnings, but may be vulnerable to any further decline in easing expectations. Focus on Powell testimony and employment report.