Preview: Due January 31 - Canada November GDP - A dip, but Q4 looking stronger than Q3
We expect Canadian GDP to see a 0.1% decline in November, in line with a preliminary estimate made with October’s 0.3% increase. That would suggest a trend of around 0.1% per month. A 0.1% increase in December would leave Q4 marginally below 2.0% annualized, up from 1.0% in Q3.
We expect services GDP to match October’s 0.1% increase but goods to slip back by 0.7% after a rise of 0.9% in October. Yr/yr growth would then slip to 1.6% from 1.9%.
The decline in goods is likely to be led by mining which led October’s gain, but we expect modest slippage in manufacturing and construction too. October’s report stated services in November would see support from accommodation/food services and real estate/rental/leasing, but slippage in transportation/warehousing and finance/insurance.
