North American Summary and Highlights 24 April
Overview - The USD was weaker in Europe but more stable in North America, if with some late losses.
North American session
While equities advanced and UST yields fell, it was a subdued session in FX, with the USD for the most part stable but seeing some late losses. EUR/USD advanced to near 1.14. In the risk-on environment EUR edged lower versus GBP but advanced versus CHF. AUD/USD edged above 0.64 but USD/CAD rose to test 1.39 before reversing, leaving AUD/CAD firmer at .8875. USD/JPY ended near 142.50 after rising to 142.80 from 142.30.
US data had limited impact. Durable goods orders surged 9.2% led by aircraft but ex transport orders were unchanged. Initial claims rise to 222k from 216k but remain low. Existing home sales fell sharply by 5.9% to 4.02m. Fed commentary was mildly dovish with Waller stating he would back easing if tariffs led to job losses and Hammack open to a policy shift in June if data justified it.
European morning session
The USD was generally weaker through the European morning. EUR/USD gained 45 pips to 1.1385, while USD/JPY fell 35 pips to 142.45. AUD and CHF moved broadly in line with the EUR, while GBP and CAD moved in line with the JPY. Scandis were the best performers, with EUR/NOK dropping 9 figures to 11.85 and EUR/SEK 4 figures to 10.94.
The main news was the German IFO survey, which came in much stronger than expected, with the business climate index rising slightly to 86.9 in April. Current conditions also rose, while the expectations index was only marginally softer. This went against the weaker tone of the PMI reported yesterday, but didn’t have much market impact, with the EUR/USD gains mostly seen before the release.