Psychology for major markets Apr 1

EUR/USD – Extending break below 1.08 assisted by stronger US ISM manufacturing data. Negative tone likely to persist into Friday's payroll data while the risk of a less dovish Fed exceeds the risk of a less dovish ECB.

USD/JPY – USD/JPY reversed after making a new 34 year high at 151.97, and upside remains restricted by intervention concerns. Yield spreads still suggests significant downside scope, but generally softer USD tone will likely be required to turn the trend lower.

EUR/GBP- EUR/GBP showed a more positive tone post-BoE MPC meeting, with the market seeing more chance of a rate cuts as early as May, and may be building for a retest of 0.86 after the initial rejection.

AUD/USD – AUD softening as yields rise in the US and Europe. But 0.6450 area remains strong support provided regional equities don’t show renewed weakness.

EUR/CHF – CHF fell sharply after the SNB cut rates. Risks remain on the CHF downside, although downside now more limited as other central banks are likely to follow suit in the coming months.  

Equities – US markets holding close to all time highs helped by strong corporate earnings and the more dovish than expected Fed. Sentiment remains positive despite extreme valuations.