Preview: Due July 23 - U.S. June Existing Home Sales - Remaining subdued
We expect June existing home sales to slip by 0.5% to 4.01m, a third straight month of little change after a 0.8% rise in May and a 0.5% fall in April. The level will remain subdued but yr/yr growth will edge above zero to 2.0% for the first time since January as a June 2024 decline drops out.
Pending home sales, designed to predict existing home sales, saw a marginal rise in May but remain subdued. June data saw the NAHB index weaken but the MBA house purchase index was a little firmer, which on balance is consistent with little change in existing home sales. Mortgage rates slipped through June after rising through May but the monthly averages were similar in each month.
We expect sales to fall in all regions except the West after rising in all regions except the West in May. We expect a 2.0% monthly rise in the median price but that is largely seasonal. Yr/yr growth would then slip to 1.0% from 1.3%, reaching its slowest since June 2023.
