Preview: Due February 14 - U.S. January Industrial Production - Cold weather to lift utilities, depress manufacturing
We expect January industrial production to rise by 0.1% overall but with a 0.2% decline in manufacturing. Utilities are likely to be lifted by unusually cold weather which is likely to restrain production elsewhere.
We expect a 3.5% rise in utilities to outweigh a 0.5% decline in mining and a 0.2% fall in manufacturing. Utilities are particularly sensitive to weather which was unusually cold in much of the country, and likely to lift utilities but depress output elsewhere.
The non-farm payroll showed aggregate manufacturing hours worked down by 0.2% with a 0.6% fall for production and non-supervisory workers. A positive ISM manufacturing report however suggests that manufacturing output would have increased under normal weather. We expect a negative contribution from autos but a positive from aircraft as Boeing output continues to recover from a strike.
We expect capacity utilization to be unchanged at 77.6% overall but slippage to 76.4% from 76.6% in manufacturing. Both series will remain in their recent ranges.
