U.S. August Consumer Confidence resilient but worries on jobs and prices increase
August’s Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index has held up a little better than expected, particularly given a weaker preliminary August Michigan CSI, falling to 97.2 from 98.7 only because July as revised up from 97.2. There has not been much change in the index in the last four months.
The latest level is a little softer than seen in each month of 2024, but has recovered most of a sharp slide seen in March and April as tariffs were originally introduced.
Current conditions at 131.2 are down from 132.8 and expectations at 74.8 are down from 76.0, but both are close to their original July readings of 131.5 and 74.4 respectively.
The labor market perception shows an excess of 9.7% seeing jobs as plentiful relative to those seeing them as hard to get, the weakest balance since February 2021 and suggesting the labor market is slowing. Those seeing jobs as plentiful were little changed but the proportion seeing them as hard to get is rising.
Inflation expectations are higher, the median at 5.1% from 4.7% and the highest since April and the average at 6.2% from 5.7% and the highest since May. Concerns are not quite as high as in the immediate aftermath of April’s tariff announcement but recent tariff developments have increased concerns somewhat. Consumers may even be noticing price gains in August.
