U.S. April ADP Employment - Weak but detail looks unlikely to be matched in non-farm payroll
ADP’s April estimate of private sector employment growth of 62k is a significant slowing from recent trend, though the ADP track record as a non-farm payroll indicator leaves us cautious over revising our payroll call of 145k, 135k private sector. Initial claims still suggest little labor market weakness.
The most prominent negative in the ADP report was a 23k decline in education and health, a sector that has been leading recent non-farm payroll gains and not one which is likely to be sensitive to tariffs. This suggests caution is advised in using this weak ADP report as a payroll signal.
Modest declines were seen in information, by 8k, professional and business by 2k and other services by 1k. Construction rose by 16k and manufacturing by 4k. Leisure and hospitality saw a respectable 27k rise, financial was quite firm at 20k while trade, transport and utilities rose by 22k, possibly supported by a late Easter.
