U.S. April Preliminary Michigan CSI - Pessimism deepens further
April’s preliminary Michigan CSI gives an unambiguous message, a fourth straight decline, and while slightly less sharp than those of February and March, shows deeper weakness in current conditions. Inflation expectations continue to surge.
The survey probably missed the Wednesday equity bounce, but for how long that will persist is unclear so we should no see this report as dated.
April’s level of 50.8 from 57.0 is barely above the 50.0, low seen in June 2022. Current conditions at 56.5 from 63.8 are also the lowest since June 2022 while expectations at 47.2 from 52.6 are marginally below the 2022 low of 47.3.
The political bias impact is massive, Democrats at 34.2 from 41.3 in March and 91.4 in October before the election. Republicans at 81.9 are down from 87.4 in March but still well above October’s 53.6. Independents fell to 46.8 from 55.7 in March and 65.8 in October.
The 1-year inflation view is up to 6.7% from 5.0% and is at its highest level since 1981. The 5-10 year view also increased, to 4.4% from 4.1%, now the highest since 1991 with the previously steady range around 3.0% that persisted through the post-COVID inflation surge now history.
