U.S. July NFIB survey - Significant bounce while inflationary pressures fade
Contrasting fears of a weakening economy, July’s NFIB small business optimism index of 93.7 from 91.5 has bounced to its highest level since February 2022, most likely due to hopes of Fed easing. Details also show a slowing in inflationary pressure.
The index of net prices at 22 from 27 is the lowest since February and expectations for net prices at 24 from 26 are the slowest since April 2023. While hiring plans were steady at 15 for a third straight month compensation plans slipped to 18 from 22, reversing a June rise, while actual compensation slowed to 33 from 38, reaching the lowest since April 2021.
The data shows significantly improved optimism on the future, with 6 month expectations on the economy at -7 from 25, the highest since November 2020, and 3 month sales expectations at -9 from -13, their highest since December 2023.
