U.S. Initial Claims up but still low, February Philly Fed slower but still positive
Initial claims at 219k from 214k and continued claims at 1.869m from 1.845m are both up but marginally below the respective levels of two weeks ago, of 220k and 1.886m. February’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of 18.1 is still healthy if down sharply from January’s very strong 44.3.
The initial claims data covers the survey week for February’s non-farm payroll and while the 4-week average of 215.25k is marginally up from 213.5k in January’s survey week it is below the 225.5k seen in December’s, and suggests a healthy labor market.
Continued claims cover the week before initial claims and the 4-week average of 1.863m is the lowest since October, though recent moves have been small.
February’s Philly Fed index of 18.1 while down from a very strong January is consistent with a modestly positive picture seen in most January manufacturing surveys. February’s Empire State index released on Tuesday was also modestly positive at 5.7, in this case up from a weak January of -12.6.
Details of February’s Philly Fed survey showed 6-mpnth expectations softer at 27.8 from 46.3, and stronger prices, paid at 40.5 from 31.9 and received at 32.9 from 29.7. Slower 6-month expectations and firmer prices were also seen in the Empire State survey, and may reflect tariff concerns.
