Preview: Due October 31 - Canada August GDP - Heading for a subdued Q3
We expect Canadian GDP to be unchanged in August, in line with the preliminary estimate made with July’s 0.2% increase. We expect a preliminary estimate for September for a 0.1% increase, which would suggest Q3 GDP could fall a little short of a 1.5% annualized forecast made by the Bank of Canada.
August data or manufacturing, wholesale and retail was not far from preliminary expectations, suggesting no major shocks in the GDP report from those sources. Retail sales were positive but the advance was fully due to autos. The preliminary August estimate saw gains in oil and gas extraction and the public sector offset by slippage in manufacturing and transport and warehousing.
Preliminary estimates for September are modestly positive for retail but negative for manufacturing, suggesting a strong GDP bounce is unlikely, though September did see a stronger increase in employment.
