U.S. February NFIB survey shows suggests slower growth but firmer prices
February’s NFIB index of Small Business Optimism to at 100.7 from 102.8 has seen a second straight decline, though the combined loss of 4.4 points is still modest in comparison with the 11.4-point rise seen between October and December. Still, there are some concerning signs in the detail.
In 2016, after Trump’s previous election victory, the index rose by 10.9 points between October and December to a high of 105.8 and saw very little subsequent correction, remaining above 104 through May of 2017 and the with the 2017 low being 103.0, in September. Small businesses, after seeing a similar initial bounce, are colling on Trump more than was the case in 2016.
Most worrying is a bounce in net prices to 32 from 22, taking the index to its highest since May 2023. Future net prices saw only a modest gain, to 29 from 26, but this is still the highest since March 2024. Hiring plans at 15 from 18 are at a 4-month low but far from weak. Despite the rise in prices, compensation plans at 18 from 20 are at their slowest since July 2024.
