Psychology for major markets Feb 7
USD settling into higher range after strong employment data
EUR/USD – EUR stabilising in the 1.07-1.08 range, although risks remain on the downside as European data continues to underperform the US.
USD/JPY – USD/JPY holding near 148, but JPY starting to show some signs of strength on the crosses. Nevertheless, some indication that policy will be tightened in the spring looks necessary to trigger a significant rally.
EUR/GBP – Underlying sentiment GBP positive as UK inflation is perceived to be more persistent than elsewhere, and UK PMIs continue to outperform, but positioning may be becoming a little extended.
AUD/USD – AUD finding some support on the crosses from better Chinese equity performance while a more hawkish RBA has also helped halt losses.
USD/CHF – CHF holding firm despite another rise in Swiss FX reserves in the latest month, but a retest of the lows below 0.93 would likely require something that significantly undermined confidence and growth expectations.
Equities – US market remaining close to all time highs but may be vulnerable to any further decline in easing expectations.