Preview: Due April 24 - U.S. March Existing Home Sales - February rise to prove misleading
We expect March existing home sales to fall by 6.1% to 4.0m, which would be the weakest level since September 2024. This would follow a 4.2% February increase that corrected a 4.7% January decline. February data was significantly above trend in both 2023 and 2024.
Some may see the February rebound from a weak January as reflecting improved weather. However with pending home sales, designed to predict existing home sales, being very weak, managing only a modest correction from a record low in January, February existing home sales look overstated. Weakness in pending home sales and some other survey evidence argues for a decline.
We expect the median price to see a 0.5% increase on the month, but this would see yr/yr growth slipping to 3.9% from 4.8%.
