Preview: Due May 16 - U.S. Apr Housing Starts and Permits - Housing sector losing momentum
We expect April housing starts to rise by 4.5% to 1380k after a 14.7% March decline while permits fall by 1.2% to 1450k after a 3.7% March decline. This would be consistent with the housing sector losing some momentum entering Q2 in response to rising mortgage rates in Q1.
Payroll details on construction were quite weak in April, with a significant slowing in employment growth and a fall in the workweek.
The single family sector has recently shown volatility in starts, but we expect a 12.4% March decline which reversed a 14.6% rise in February to be followed by only a modest 2.7% rise in April. For single permits we expect a 0.7% increase after a 4.7% March decline which was the first decline since December 2022 fell for the eleventh straight month. March’s decline is likely to be signaling another turn in trend.
For multiples we expect starts to rise by 10.4% after a 21.7% decline in March, but permits to fall by 5.0% after a 1.6% fall in March. Despite the narrowing pf the gap the multiple permits level will remain well ahead of that for multiple starts.
