Preview: Due January 25 - U.S. December Durable Goods Orders - Trend marginally positive

We expect transport orders to get support from aircraft as implied by strong Boeing orders data, though a sharp aircraft rise in November means further upside scope is moderate. Autos are also likely to be a positive as the industry continues to recover from strikes. We expect a fairly neutral month from defense, which has a large overlap with transport, with orders ex defense seen up by 1.6%.

The ex-transport series has not seen a move of 1.0% in either direction for over a year with trend very marginally positive, a 0.4% increase in November correcting a 0.3% decline in October. A 0.2% increase in December would maintain trend, though ISM manufacturing new orders continue to trend marginally below the neutral 50.

We expect non-defense capital orders ex aircraft, a key indicator of business investment, to also rise by 0.2%, this following a 0.8% increase in November that reversed two consecutive declines. This series is a little more volatile than the ex transport one but trends are similar.