Preview: Due April 16 - U.S. March Housing Starts and Permits - Modest fall in Starts, modest rise in Permits
We expect March housing starts to fall by 2.7% to 1480k after a 10.7% February increase while permits rise by 0.4% to 1530k after a 2.4% increase in January. Recent housing sector data has been mixed but construction details were positive in March’s non-farm payroll.
Existing home sales saw a sharp rise in February but new home sales saw little change. The NAHB Homebuilders’ survey continued to rise in March before stalling in April but the MBA house purchase index has lost momentum. On balance a modestly positive underlying picture appears intact.
Single permits have risen for thirteen straight months and we expect trend to persist with a 1.7% increase in March. Single family stats are more volatile, and we expect a fall of 4.3% after a rise of 11.6% in February moved above trend in a rebound from two straight declines.
Multiples are often volatile but we do not expect any major moves in March. For stars we expect a 2.0% rise with February’s 8.3% increase not having fully reversed a 27.9% January decline. For permits we expect a 2.4% decline after a 5.1% February increase.
