Preview: Due July 17 - U.S. June Housing Starts and Permits - Trend slipping but June may outperform trend
We expect a modest upward correction in July housing starts of 1.8% to 1300k after a 5.5% decline in May. However we expect a fourth straight decline in permits, albeit a modest one of 0.6%, to 1390k, to suggest a negative underlying trend.
Most housing sector signals have been pointing lower recently, but non-farm payroll details on construction were positive in June, suggesting June’s data may outperform the underlying picture.
We expect starts to show a modest 1.8% rise after a 5.5% May decline with singles up by 1.8% and multiples up by a similar 1.7%, after declines of 5.2% and 6.6% respectively in May.
Single permits have now seen four straight declines after thirteen straight gains and it appears clear that trend has turned. We expect single permits to fall by 1.7% after a 2.8% decline in May. Multiple permits however look due for a correction higher, we expect by 1.6%, after a fall of 4.3% in May.
