Continuum Economics
  • Search
  • About Us
  • Buy
  • Invite A Friend
  • My Basket
  • Articles
  • Calendar
  • Forecasts
  • Events
  • Data
  • Newsletters
  • My Alerts
  • Community
  • Directory
  • About Us
  • Buy
  • Invite A Friend
  • My Basket
  • Articles
    • All
    • Thematic
    • Tactical
    • Asia
    • EMEA
    • Americas
    • Newsletters
    • Freemium
    • Editor's Choice
    • Most Viewed
    • Most Shared
    • Most Liked
  • Calendar
    • Interactive
      • China
      • United States
      • Eurozone
      • United Kingdom
    • Month Ahead
    • Reviews
    • Previews
  • Forecasts
    • Forecasts
    • Key Views
  • Events
    • Media
    • Conference Calls
  • Data
    • Country Insights
    • Shadow Credit Ratings
    • Full CI Data Download
  • Newsletters
  • My Alerts
  • Community
    • FX
    • Fixed Income
    • Macro Strategy
    • Credit Markets
    • Equities
    • Commodities
    • Precious Metals
    • Renewables
  • Directory
  • My Account
  • Notifications Setup
  • Account Details
  • Recent Devices
  • Distribution Lists
  • Shared Free Trials
  • Saved Articles
  • Shared Alerts
  • My Posts
Published: 2024-04-16T15:00:58.000Z

Preview: Due April 24 - U.S. March Durable Goods Orders - HInts of underlying improvement

byDave Sloan

Senior Economist , North America
3

We expect March durable goods orders to rise by 2.5%, with most of the gain coming from transport, aircraft in particular, but we expect a 0.5% increase ex transport to show some hints of underlying improvement. 

The ex transport trend has been near flat for over a year with no large out of trend moves, though signals from March’s ISM manufacturing index, which moved above the neutral 50, and a rise in March manufacturing output suggest some underlying improvement. February’s 0.3% increase ex transport simply reversed a January decline. A 0.5% rise in March would be a move a little above trend.

Transport is likely to see a lift from aircraft with Boeing orders stronger in March, with positive contributions also from autos and defense, the latter of which has a strong overlap with transport and is due for a bounce after a weaker February. Ex defense we expect orders to rise by 2.1%.

We expect non-defense capital orders ex aircraft, a key indicator of business investment, to rise by 0.5%, matching the ex-transport gain, delivering a second straight increase to more than reverse two straight declines. This series is a little more volatile than the ex transport one but trends are similar.

Continue to read the article for free
Login

or

or

Topics
Foreign Exchange
Data

GENERAL

  • Home
  • About Us
  • Our Team
  • Careers

LEGAL

  • Terms and Conditions
  • Privacy Policy
  • Compliance
  • GDPR

GET IN TOUCH

  • Contact Us
Continuum Economics
The Technical Analyst Awards Winner 2021
The Technical Analyst Awards Finalist 2020
image