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Published: 2024-01-08T11:18:13.000Z

Psychology for major markets 8 Jan

byAdrian Schmidt

Senior FX Strategist
-

Focus shifting to US CPI.

EUR/USD – EUR/USD holding in the 1.09-1.10 range for now. Focus n the uS CPI data this week and any developments on risk sentiment. 
USD/JPY – USD/JPY has been boosted by rising US yields this year, but got overdone near 146 on Friday. Focus on Tokyo CPI on Tuesday and US CPI on Thursday as potential drivers of yield spreads.
EUR/GBP – EUR/GBP holding just above 0.86, but looking a little low relative to current yield spreads. With BoE policy already priced to be more hawkish than others, upside risks dominate.
AUD/USD – AUD suffering a little from the Zhongzhi bankruptcy even though the correlation with Chinese equities has weakened in the last month. The 0.6870 high from December looking toppish near term, but still some upside scope against the EUR if risk sentiment stabilises.
USD/CHF – CHF holding strong helped by higher than expected December CPI, but still looks toppish here as SNB looks to turn more dovish and halt FX selling. 
Equities - Payrolls strong but not strong enough to cause alarm. We expect CPI to be acceptably subdued, but the market is vulnerable to an upside surprise. 

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Topics
Foreign Exchange
Psycho

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