Preview: Due September 27 - Canada July GDP - A little stronger than the preliminary estimate
We expect Canadian GDP to increase by 0.1% in July, slightly above an unchanged estimate made with June data. A Bank of Canada forecast made in July of 2.8% annualized growth in Q3 will however still look difficult to achieve. Governor Macklem has acknowledged downside risk to the forecast.
While manufacturing is likely to rebound from a weak June, we expect a 0.2% decline in goods output with mining and construction seen weak, and utilities vulnerable to a correction from a strong June.
We expect a 0.2% increase in services output, with support coming from a correction higher in wholesale from a weak June, despite suggestions with June data that weakness would be extended. This is the main remains we expect July data to come in stronger than the preliminary estimate.
