US November Housing Starts/Permits - Starts outperform, but single permits still marginally positive
US November housing starts with a 14.8% increase to 1560k are well above expectations though permits with a 2.5% fall to 1460k are in line, making the housing starts rise look unsustainable, though with single family data outperforming in both series the data shows some underlying strength.
The starts detail show singles up by an unusually large 18.0% while the usually more volatile multiples increased by 6.9%. Permits detail show singles up by 0.7%, maintaining a positive trend with a tenth straight increase, even if the uptrend is now quite modest, while multiples fell by 8.5%.
New home sales have been resilient even as existing home sales have fallen sharply and the starts and permits strength is consistent more with new home sales than with overall housing demand, with supply improving even as high mortgage rates curb demand. That mortgage rates have moved of their highs is likely to reduce downward pressure on demand.
