Preview: Due July 16 - U.S. June Industrial Production - Maintaining a subdued picture
We expect June industrial production to see a marginal 0.1% increase, led by weather-sensitive utilities, with manufacturing seen unchanged to maintain a subdued underlying picture.
Utilities will get a boost from a heatwave at the end of the month, though this is likely to see some offset from slippage in mining, where aggregate hours worked fell in June’s non-farm payroll.
The non-farm payroll shows aggregate manufacturing hours worked saw a marginal June decline, though productivity growth should allow output to hold steady. ISM manufacturing data was marginally improved in June, with the production index edging above neutral. We expect autos to be neutral after more than fully explaining a 0.1% increase in May manufacturing output. We expect manufacturing ex autos to be unchanged after two straight declines.
We expect capacity utilization to be unchanged at 77.4% overall while manufacturing slips to 76.6% after two months at 77.7%. Trend in capacity utilization has little direction.
