Canada GDP maintains flat picture in October
October Canadian GDP was unchanged for a thirds straight month, underperforming a forecast for a 0.2% increase made with September’s data. The preliminary estimate for November is for a 0.1% increase. If followed by a flat December that would leave Q4 up by a marginal 0.6% annualized.
While Canadian GDP appears to be on track to avoid a second straight decline the picture is still clearly near flat, underperforming the US significantly despite the US making more impressive progress in controlling inflation than is Canada.
October data was subdued outside gains of 1.0% or more in retail, mining and agriculture, though there were few components strikingly weak. A 0.2% fall in transport and warehousing was impacted by a strike and is expected to reverse in November. Manufacturing is also expected to rise in November, but retail is seen slipping back.
