U.S. March trade balance little changed, Canada's moves into deficit
March’s US trade deficit of $69.4bn was marginally down from $69.5bn in February as a deterioration on the goods deficit was offset by a correction higher in the services surplus. Canada’s trade data was more surprising, a C$2.23bn deficit, and the largest deficit since June 2023.
US data showed exports down by 2.0% and imports down by 1.6%, imports falling by marginally more in USD terms. Goods showed exports down by 2.9%, a little less weak than a 3.5% fall seen in advance data, and imports down by 1.6%, similar to a 1.7% fall seen in advance data.
Services showed exports down by 0.2% after a 1.2% February increase and imports down by 1.7% after a 4.7% February increase. The services surplus of $23.1bn is up from $22.2bn in February but below January’s $24.1bn and each month in the final three quarters of 2023.
Canada’s data showed exports down by 5.3% and imports down by 1.2%. Both series had surged by over 5% in February so it was imports that held up better in March. In real terms exports fell by 4.7% and imports fell by 1.2%, matching the nominal data. In real terms exports were unchanged in Q1 while imports rose by 0.6% (not annualized) implying a moderate negative contribution to GDP.
