Canada July GDP - First increase in four months
July Canadian GDP followed three straight declines with a rise of 0.2%, stronger than the 0.1% preliminary estimate made with June’s data. The preliminary estimate for August is unchanged. If both August and September are unchanged Q3 GDP would be up by around 0.7% annualized after a decline in Q2 that was fully due to plunging exports.
July detail shows goods up by 0.6% after a 0.4% decline in June that was the third straight decline. Mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction led with a rise of 1.4% but manufacturing managed a 0.7% increase after a 1.5% June decline.
Services increased by 0.1% which matched June’s gain ad is in line with recent trend. Retail slipped by 1.0% after a 1.5% rise in June but preliminary signals fir August are positive. Arts. Entertainment and recreation fell by 1.0% after a positive Q2 supported by National Hockey League playoffs.
Yr/yr GDP remains positive at 0.9% and unchanged from June, though these two figures match the post-pandemic low seen in September 2023. A pick up through 2024 assisted by BoC easing has been undermined by US tariffs, but the latest data hints that the worst of the manage is now done.
