Canada May GDP - Q2 looking less weak than BoC forecast
May Canadian GDP with a second straight 0.1% decline matched the preliminary estimate made with April’s report. The preliminary estimate for June is for a 0.1% increase, which would leave Q2 GDP almost unchanged, significantly stronger than a Bank of Canada estimate for a 1.5% annualized decline.
May details show goods down by 0.1% despite a 0.7% increase in manufacturing that corrected a 1.8% April decline, Mining with a 1.0% decline was the main negative. Services were unchanged with a 1.2% decline in retail the most significant negative. Yr/yr GDP at 1.2% is the lowest since March 2024.
In June manufacturing is expected to slip back after May’s bounce but retail is expected to recover from a weak May. Whole sale is also seen increasing in June. A rise in June GDP matched stronger employment growth in that month.
