North American Summary and Highlights 23 Feb

North American session

USD/JPY dropped around 30 pips with 150.30 the low but there was otherwise little movement in FX in the North American session, although USD/CAD edged up slightly, nudging above 1.35. 

The market was very quiet, with no data, but UST yields were lower. This followed overnight comments from the Fed’s Waller echoing the general recent chorus that there is no hurry to cut rates though in saying he needed to see at least a couple of months of inflation data seemed to leave a Q2 move as possible. Fed’s Williams later said he expects easing later this year, but could consider tightening if the economic outlook changed materially. 

European morning session

The USD was net little changed through the European morning, but managed modest gains against the JPY and the commodity currencies, while falling slightly against GBP. EUR/USD saw a dip in the early part of the session, but finished little changed near 1.0825. USD/JPY gained around 15 pips to 150.75, while AUD, CAD and NOK were all softer with oil and gas prices. 

Datawise the German IFO survey was the only release of significance, and this came in bang in line with expectations on the business climate index, although the expectations index and he current conditions index were both marginally stronger than expected. Otherwise German HDP was confirmed as falling 0.3% in Q4, and there was little else of note. 

Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said Euro zone inflation remains stubbornly high so the European Central Bank should resist any temptation to cut interest rates early, especially before crucial economic data in the second quarter, and this may have helped some further firming in EUR yields.