North American Summary and Highlights 17 Jun

North American session

Despite weak US data the USD was stronger on concerns over the Iran-Israel conflict, particularly after Trump demanded Iran’s unconditional surrender. Oil advanced and equities fell. USD/JPY rose to 145.25 from 144.70 while EUR/USD fell to 1.1485 from 1.1560. EUR/GBP was stronger near .8550 as GBP/USD fell over a big figure below 1.3450 but EUR/CHF was weaker near .9375 as USD/CHF saw a only a modest rise to .8165 from .8125, CHF also supported by risk off sentiment. AUD/USD fell well below .65 while USD/CAD rose well above 1.36 as riskier currencies suffered generally. 

May US retail sales fell by 0.9%, with declines of 0.3% ex autos and 0.1% ex autos and gasoline. May industrial prediction fell by 0.2% and while manufacturing rose by 0.1% manufacturing ex autos fell by 0.3%, June’s NAHB homebuilders’ index fell to 32 from 24, its weakest since December 2022.  

European morning session 

A generally quiet European morning saw little change in most FX pairs. EUR/USD was unchanged near 1.1555/60, while USD/JPY edged slightly higher to 144.85. GBP was also a little weaker, with EUR/GBP gaining 15 pips to 0.8533, while the CHF was the strongest currency, with EUR/CHF falling 10 pips to 0.9390, helped by softer equity markets. 

There was little news of any note. With regard to the BoJ’s overnight decision to reduce QT from 2026, BoJ governor Ueda told a press conference that "It's desirable to continue tapering to allow yields to move more freely reflecting market forces. But tapering too rapidly could cause unintended impact on market stability."  

Datawise, Swedish unemployment was higher than expected in May at 9.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis, but there was no impact on the SEK, with EUR/SEK steady at 10.96. The German June ZEW survey showed an improvement in sentiment, reaching its second highest level of the year, close to the highs before Trump announced reciprocal tariffs, while the current conditions index hit its highest for a year.