Preview: Due June 18 - U.S. May Industrial Production - A stronger month
We expect May industrial production to rise by 0.5% overall with a 0.3% increase in manufacturing, the overall figure boosted by utilities and manufacturing reversing a decline seen in April.
May’s non-farm payroll shows manufacturing aggregate hours worked unchanged after a rise in April but production and non-supervisory workers reversing an April decline, and we expect manufacturing output to follow the latter series.
We expect autos to make a modest positive contribution to manufacturing after a more significant negative in April. Non-farm payroll detail suggests a third straight decline in mining output but we expect this to be more than fully offset by a rise in utilities, as suggested by weekly electrical output data.
We expect capacity utilization to rise to 78.7% overall from 78.4% with manufacturing at 77.1% from 76.9%. We are back near late 2023 levels after a significant dip in January but still below levels seen in early 2023.
