Continuum Economics
  • Search
  • About Us
  • Buy
  • Invite A Friend
  • My Basket
  • Articles
  • Calendar
  • Forecasts
  • Events
  • Data
  • Newsletters
  • My Alerts
  • Community
  • Directory
  • About Us
  • Buy
  • Invite A Friend
  • My Basket
  • Articles
    • All
    • Thematic
    • Tactical
    • Asia
    • EMEA
    • Americas
    • Newsletters
    • Freemium
    • Editor's Choice
    • Most Viewed
    • Most Shared
    • Most Liked
  • Calendar
    • Interactive
      • China
      • United States
      • Eurozone
      • United Kingdom
    • Month Ahead
    • Reviews
    • Previews
  • Forecasts
    • Forecasts
    • Key Views
  • Events
    • Media
    • Conference Calls
  • Data
    • Country Insights
    • Shadow Credit Ratings
    • Full CI Data Download
  • Newsletters
  • My Alerts
  • Community
    • FX
    • Fixed Income
    • Macro Strategy
    • Credit Markets
    • Equities
    • Commodities
    • Precious Metals
    • Renewables
  • Directory
  • My Account
  • Notifications Setup
  • Account Details
  • Recent Devices
  • Distribution Lists
  • Shared Free Trials
  • Saved Articles
  • Shared Alerts
  • My Posts
Published: 2023-12-19T11:33:21.000Z

German Data Preview (Jan 4): Headline CPI Inflation to Jump on Energy Base Effects?

byAndrew Wroblewski

Senior Economist Western Europe , UK, Eurozone
-

We have been highlighting repeatedly a clear and continued fall in overall German and EZ inflation pressures, initially evident in survey data but spreading to official numbers. This downtrend was much more evident in the softer-than-expected October and also the November HICP numbers.  Indeed, helped by a small and further fall in fuel prices, weaker food inflation, all alongside favourable recreational sector base effects, the headline and core rate came down further, the former easing 0.7 ppt to 2.3%, a 29-month low, with the core dropping by 0.7 ppt to 3.5%.  Despite by a further fall in fuel prices, recreation-sourced and particularly energy-related base effects, are likely to push up the  headline rate back to 3.3% in December but with the core stable (Figure 1).  Regardless, the disinflation backdrop underlined by an ever softer core seasonally adjusted data (Figure 2).  Indeed, the headline y/y rate may resume a downtrend in the new year.
 

Figure 1: HICP Inflation to Jump?

Source: German Federal Stats Office, CE

Disinflation Continues Meanwhile

German HICP inflation continues to be volatile but with a downtrend more discernible and ever broader after the downside surprises of recent months. But that headline rate may rise afresh in December, albeit where energy inflation will jump due to bse effects and despite a m/m fall in fuel costs. 

Figure 2: Adjusted Core Rate Falling Clearly

Source: German Federal Stats Office, CE, % chg m/m, smoothed


 

 

 

Continue to read the article for free
Login

or

or

Topics
DM Country Research
Data
GERMANY

GENERAL

  • Home
  • About Us
  • Our Team
  • Careers

LEGAL

  • Terms and Conditions
  • Privacy Policy
  • Compliance
  • GDPR

GET IN TOUCH

  • Contact Us
Continuum Economics
The Technical Analyst Awards Winner 2021
The Technical Analyst Awards Finalist 2020
image