U.S. Initial Claims suggest labor market remains strong in February
Initial claims at 201k from 213k are significantly lower than expected in what is the survey week for February’s non-farm payroll. This suggests a continued tight labor market, though the 4-week average of 215k is up from 204k in January’s payroll survey week.
Today’s outcome is the lowest since January’s payroll survey week fell to 189k. Both these week saw some harsh weather which could have created difficulties in filing claims, though we doubt claims would have been much higher under more favorable weather conditions.
Continued claims, covering the week before initial claims, fell by 37k to 1.862m, fully reversing last week’s rise though the 4-week average is still creeping higher after falling in January. The message from both series is that February payrolls will probably not be quite as strong as January’s, but the labor market remains tight.
