North American Summary and Highlights 8 Mar
Overview - The USD recovered from losses seen in the aftermath of mixed U.S employment data.
North American session
The USD finished little changed after initially trading lower after the February employment report. EUR/USD initially traded up above 1.0980, but settled back to opening levels near 1.0940. USD/JPY also dipped as low as 146.50 before recovering back to 147.10. USD/CAD advanced to near 1.35 after an initial dip to 1.3420 following a strong Canadian employment report.
February’s non-farm payroll increase of 275k was strong though the upside surprise was offset by 167k of net downward revisions to December and January. Other details are softer, a 0.1% rise in average hourly earnings correcting from January’s above trend 0.5% (revised from 0.6%) and a rise in unemployment to 3.9% from 3.7%. The workweek did however rebound from a weather-related dip in January, and that is positive for activity.
Canada saw a stronger than expected 40.7k increase in February employment with details on balance but not wholly positive. Unemployment nudged up to 5.8% from 5.7% while wage data showed some slowing, if not yet fully convincing. As in the U.S., the case for easing in Canada is building but there is little pressing need to act.
European morning session
The EUR and USD both fell back while the JPY, AUD, CHF and GBP all gained ground through the European morning. The EUR was the weakest performer, with EUR/USD losing around 20 pips to 1.0930, while USD/JPY fell nearly a big figure, trading briefly sub-147, as Eurozone and US yields both continued to decline.
EUR weakness looks to have been related to various comments from ECB council members, including Rehn, Holzmann, Villeroy and Simkus, suggesting rate cuts were coming in the spring, with the JPY benefiting the most from the decline in yield spreads that resulted. The gains for GBP came even though UK yields moved lower with Eurozone yields.
Datawise, German industrial production data was stronger than expected in January at 1.0% m/m, but December was revised down to -2.0%, ensuring the underlying trend remained soft. Swedish GDP data was stronger than expected in January, rising 0.8%, while Eurozone employment rose 0.3% q/q and GDP was confirmed as unchanged in Q4.