Preview: Due April 30 - Canada February GDP - Another rise, but a slower one
We expect Canadian GDP to increase by 0.3% in February, slightly below a 0.4% estimate that was made with January’s report, where a strong 0.6% monthly increase was seen, flattered by the end of public sector strikes. We expect preliminary indications for March to be near flat.
If January data is unrevised, February is as we forecast and March is unchanged, this would imply a 3.2% annualized increase in Q1, marginally above a 2.8% estimate made by the Bank of Canada in its April Monetary Policy Report.
February’s GDP increase is likely to be led by goods, in particular mining with a positive contribution also from manufacturing. Finance and insurance are likely to lead a modest 0.2% increase in services, as suggested by the preliminary signals for February given in January’s report.
