Preview: Due April 16 - U.S. March Industrial Production - Moderate manufacturing gain, stronger overall
We expect a 0.5% increase in March industrial production with the increase coming from a 0.3% rise in manufacturing, while gains of 1.0% in utilities and 1.2% in mining will each add around 0.1% to the total.
Manufacturing signals have generally been picking up with ISM manufacturing data firm, and manufacturing payrolls in March showing the strongest increase since November 2024. However manufacturing aggregate hours worked showed little change, and that suggests only a moderate 0.3% increase in manufacturing output. Payroll data suggests a neutral contribution from autos.
Payroll data was positive for mining and higher energy prices are likely to stimulate output, though a strong response as early as March is unlikely. Weekly electrical output suggests weather-sensitive utilities output will rebound from a dip in February.
We expect capacity utilization to increase to 76.6% from 76.3% which would take the series to its highest level since June 2024. For manufacturing we expect only a marginal increase to 75.7% from 75.6%, This would be the highest since September 2025.
