Preview: Due January 16 - Canada December CPI - Still stubbornly high
We expect December Canadian CPI to rise to 3.4% yr/yr after two months at 3.1%, and we expect only marginal downward progress in one of the three Bank of Canada core rates, showing that inflation remains stubborn in Canada.
We expect the monthly data to show overall CPI down by 0.3% with a 0.2% decline ex food and energy, but these declines will be largely seasonal.
Seasonally adjusted we expect gains of 0.3% both overall and ex food and energy, the latter a marginal slowing from two straight gains of 0.4% but still consistent with inflation remaining well above the BoC’s 2.0% target.
The ex food and energy rate is not one of the BoC’s core rates. Here we see a marginal decline in CPI-common to 3.8% yr/yr from 3.9%, but we expect CPI-trim and CPI-median to remain at their paces seen in both October and November at 3.5% and 3.4% respectively.
