North American Summary and Highlights 25 Sep

North American session

The USD advanced across the board after a strong set of data, with gains continuing to build into the afternoon. Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.8% from 3.3% with historical revisions providing no negative offset. Initial claims to 218k from 232k were the lowest since July 19. Also August durable goods orders rose by 2.9%, 0.4% ex transport, and the advance August trade deficit fell sharply to $85.5bn from $102.8bn. Equities struggled as Fed easing projections were questioned. 

USD/JPY rose to 149.80 from 148.85 and EUR/USD fell to 1.1660 from 1.1735. EUR/GBP sustained European gains around .8740 but EUR/CHF slipped to .9325 from .9345. USD/CAD pushed through 1.39 to peak at 1.3950 as AUD/USD fell to .6535 from .6580.  

European morning session 

A quiet European session saw no significant change in any of the G10 currencies. The main event was the SNB monetary policy meeting, but this produced the expected unchanged policy. The SNB now sees 2026 GDP growth at the lower end of the 1%-1.5% range it offered three months ago.  While still pointing to possible FX intervention and a continued willingness to adjust policy accordingly, the statement was (probably deliberately) vague about both taking rates below zero and what the consequences would be. EUR/CHF saw a minor dip on the initial reaction to the decision, but finished the session marginally higher. 

Otherwise, the Eurozone money supply data saw weaker than expected M3 growth but slightly stronger loan growth, neither of which were significant enough to impact the EUR.