North American Summary and Highlights 12 March
Overview - The USD had little clear direction with a dip on a softer than expected CPI being brief. EUR and JPY underperformed the riskier currencies.
North American session
US CPI came in weaker than expected at 0.2% overall and ex food and energy, but the kneejerk USD selloff was quickly reversed and more, as the market looked ahead to potential tariff-led acceleration in future months. Still, the USD later saw renewed slippage back to near the post-CPI lows, with no obvious trigger, USD/JPY falling back below 148.50 after briefly peaking above 149.
USD/CAD saw little reaction to an as expected 25bps BoC easing, which provided little in the way of forward guidance, and USD/CAD fell to 1.4375 from 1.4415 ahead of the US data.
While the USD remained mostly near post-CPI lows, EUR/USD slipped back below 1.09, closer to the low than the 1.0930 high with Trump critical of the EU over trade policy. EUR/GBP fell to near .84 from .8430 while EUR/CHF fell to near .96 after peaking above .9640.
European morning session
The JPY continued to correct lower through the European morning. USD/JPY gained another 30 pips to 148.70, while the USD was otherwise generally slightly softer, with EUR/USD up around 10 pips to 1.0910, and similar modest gains for other Europeans. The CAD was the best performer through the session, with USD/CAD falling around half a figure from opening levels to 1.4415.
The generally more risk positive tone was helped by news that Ukraine would support a U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, which also helped to produce a recovery in European equities.