Asia Summary and Highlights 17 Apr
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda "no comment" on declining market expectations for April rate hike
Trump says war in Iran "should be ending pretty soon"
Asia Session
Despite Trump saying war in Iran "should be ending pretty soon", market participants have heard that countless times and seems to prefer taking profit than holding/adding new position on risk asset. U.S. major equity indexes are pips in the green while regional equities fall. AUD/USD is trading 0.08% higher at 0.7167. NZD/USD is trading 0.04% lower while USD/CAD slips 0.15% with both Brent and WTI lower.
While BoJ Governor Ueda has "no comment" on declining market expectations for April rate hike, his take on oil spike effect seems to indicate their forecast on growth may change. However, our call for a hike in the April meeting fits in non-aggressive tightening type as we only see one hike for 2026. USD/JPY is trading 0.24% higher at 159.49. Else, EUR/USD is up 0.01% and GBP/USD down 0.04%.
European and North American sessions
UK GDP was significantly stronger than expected with a 0.5% February increase but the lift to the GBP was marginal with EUR/GBP subsequently more than fully erasing a modest dip on the data. GBP/USD fell to 1.3530 from 1.3580 while EUR/USD was fairly stable near 1.1780 after slipping from around 1.18. USD/JPY saw modest gains edging above 159.
Despite a 10-day ceasefire being agreed in Lebanon oil was firmer with a US-Iran deal still looking distant. USD/CAD edged below 1.37 from 1.3730 but AUD/USD, after failing to break above .72, slipped to .7160, leaving AUD/CAD softer near .98.
US data was mixed with initial claims falling to 207k from 218k and April’s Philly Fed manufacturing index strong at 26.7 from 18.1. However these resilient indicators were followed by an unexpected 0.5% decline in March industrial production, with manufacturing falling by 0.1%.