Preview: Due May 22 - U.S. April Existing Home Sales - No signals for a strong move
We expect existing home sales to be unchanged at 4.19m in April, pausing after a 4.3% decline in March corrected a strong 9.5% increase in February. We expect to see trend move lower in the coming months, but there are no clear signals for a second straight decline in April.
Existing home sales saw sharp gains in February in both 2023 and 2024. In 2023 the series trended steadily lower after the February surge, and higher mortgage rates in Q1 are likely to weigh on sales in Q2 of 2024. However pending home sales picked up in February and March, albeit in what could be catch up with February existing home sales strength, while survey evidence from the MBA and NAHB, while off recent highs, does not suggest a strong move in April existing home sales.
We expect April existing home sales to fall in all regions except the South, which is the largest region and saw a sharp fall in March but a strong March rise in pending home sales. We expect a seasonal gain on the month in the median price of 2.0% but this would see yr/yr growth slip to 4.0% from 4.8%.
